The trucking industry has been talking about a driver shortage for years. But increasingly, we think the better question is: Are we short of truck drivers or short of qualified truck drivers?
Customers moving freight through the Port of Houston bring up driver availability with us regularly, usually assuming it’s a straightforward supply problem: too much freight and not enough people willing to drive trucks.
The reality is more complicated.
Plenty of people hold or have held commercial driver’s licenses. But a CDL alone doesn’t show whether someone has the training, experience, safety record, communication skills, and judgment needed to safely operate an 80,000-pound commercial vehicle.
That’s why the conversation is shifting from quantity to quality.
Key Takeaway
- ATA has historically estimated a shortage of roughly 80,000 drivers, particularly in long-haul trucking.
- ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello has more recently described the issue as a “quality problem” rather than simply a shortage of people.
- Researchers such as Steve Viscelli argue that trucking has a retention problem: the industry brings large numbers of people into driving but struggles to keep them.
- A CDL does not necessarily mean a new driver has received enough real-world training to meet a carrier’s standards.
- Recent federal action involving non-domiciled CDLs, English-language proficiency and driver training reinforces the importance of qualification and credential integrity.
- For shippers, the quality and stability of the drivers actually hauling their freight may matter more than the national shortage number.
Maybe We’re Counting the Wrong Thing
For years, the American Trucking Associations framed the problem largely as a driver shortage.
But ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello made an important distinction in 2025, describing the situation as a driver-quality problem more than an absolute-numbers problem. He pointed to issues including accidents and drug and alcohol testing. That’s an important distinction.
The number of people with CDLs isn’t the same as the number of drivers a safety-conscious carrier is willing or able to put behind the wheel.
Carriers still have to consider safety records, insurance requirements, customer requirements, experience, and the demands of a particular operation.
Those standards become even more important in specialized work such as port drayage.
A CDL Is the Beginning, Not the Finish Line
Driver training is another part of the equation that doesn’t receive enough attention.
Federal Entry-Level Driver Training requirements establish baseline standards for new drivers. Training providers must be listed on FMCSA’s Training Provider Registry.
However, FMCSA makes an important distinction: providers on the registry self-certify that they meet federal requirements. FMCSA does not certify or approve the quality of individual schools.
That leaves carriers with an important responsibility.
A newly licensed driver may have a CDL but still lack the real-world experience necessary for a particular operation.
Passing a CDL test and safely maneuvering a tractor-trailer through a congested container terminal are different things. Drivers need to recognize equipment problems, understand turns and blind spots, communicate effectively, handle difficult traffic conditions, and make good decisions under pressure.
Poor training doesn’t create more usable capacity. It can create more CDL holders without creating more qualified professional drivers.
Non-Domiciled Drivers Are Part of the Qualification Discussion
Non-domiciled CDL holders have also become part of the national conversation. Over 28,000 CDL holders lost their license in the past year, 6,000 in Texas due to new strict laws.
It’s important to be precise here. Non-domiciled status itself does not make someone an unsafe driver. The issue is whether credentials, qualifications, and eligibility are being consistently verified and enforced.
Federal regulators have identified enough problems in this area to substantially tighten eligibility and verification requirements for non-domiciled commercial licenses.
English-language proficiency has also received renewed enforcement attention. Federal regulations require commercial drivers to have sufficient English proficiency to communicate and understand highway signs and signals.
The larger issue isn’t where a driver was born.
Every driver sharing our highways should be properly trained, properly credentialed and capable of safely performing the job. The standard should be the same for everyone.
What About Retention?
Researchers such as Steve Viscelli approach the shortage question differently. They argue that trucking continues to attract people into the occupation but struggles to keep them, particularly in long-haul operations where turnover has historically been extremely high.
That creates an expensive revolving door: Recruit a driver. Train the driver. Lose the driver. Recruit another one.
From a carrier’s perspective, that’s expensive. From a shipper’s perspective, it can be disruptive. And constantly replacing experienced drivers with inexperienced ones has implications beyond cost. Experience matters.
Fifty Trucks Aren’t Necessarily Fifty Trucks
This is where the national driver-shortage debate becomes practical for shippers. Suppose two carriers each tell you they have 50 trucks. One has high turnover, continually recruits inexperienced drivers, and frequently retrains replacements.
The other has drivers who have been with the company for years, know the customers, understand the equipment and terminals, and have established safety records.
Those aren’t really the same 50 trucks.
The truck itself is only part of the capacity you’re buying. You’re also buying the person behind the wheel.
Experienced drivers know terminals. They recognize equipment problems. They understand difficult customer locations. They communicate when something doesn’t look right. And they know when not to take a chance. That institutional knowledge has real value.
What Shippers Should Be Asking
After decades in trucking, we think the industry’s fixation on a national shortage number can obscure something much more useful to the customer. Good drivers are not interchangeable.
A CDL establishes that someone has met licensing requirements. It doesn’t automatically establish experience, judgment, professionalism, or a strong safety history.
So when you’re evaluating a carrier, don’t ask only:
“Do you have a truck available?”
Ask:
- How long their drivers typically stay.
- About turnover.
- How they qualify drivers beyond verifying the CDL.
- What experience they require and how they evaluate newly licensed drivers.
- About safety performance.
And for port freight, ask how experienced their drivers are inside the Port Houston terminals.
Those questions tell you much more about the capacity you’re actually buying.
Because the industry’s biggest challenge may not be finding enough people who can obtain CDLs. It may be finding and keeping enough qualified professional drivers whom carriers, insurers, customers, and the traveling public can trust.
Ask Us Those Same Questions
We’d rather answer those questions than have you guess.
If you’re moving containers through Port Houston, ask us how long our drivers stay, what we require before someone takes a load, and how well they know the terminals. Those answers tell you more about the capacity you’re actually buying than a truck count ever will.
Talk to our team, and we’ll walk you through it.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is there really a truck driver shortage?
There is an ongoing debate. ATA has historically described a significant shortage, particularly in long-haul trucking. Other researchers argue that retention and turnover are the larger problems. Driver qualification is increasingly part of the discussion as well.
Does having a CDL mean someone is a qualified professional truck driver?
A CDL establishes that a driver has met applicable licensing requirements. Carriers may require additional experience, safety performance, insurance eligibility, and qualifications appropriate to their operation.
What is a non-domiciled CDL?
A non-domiciled CDL is a specific category of commercial driver’s license available under federal rules to certain people domiciled outside the United States. Federal regulators have tightened eligibility and verification requirements for these licenses.
Are CDL schools federally approved?
FMCSA does not approve or certify individual training providers. Providers listed in its Training Provider Registry self-certify that they meet applicable federal requirements. Realizing the fallacy, DOT shut down 110 CDL schools this week, 13 in Texas.
What should a shipper ask a trucking company about its drivers?
Look beyond fleet size and immediate availability. Ask about driver tenure, turnover, experience, safety performance, qualification standards, and familiarity with your freight and operating environment. For Port Houston drayage especially, an experienced driver who understands terminals, chassis, containers, appointments, and port congestion brings something that doesn’t show up in a simple truck count: Experience.
